Fiber to the home (FTTH) deployments continued to make strong progress in 2008 and early 2009, despite the economic downturn, and prospects for continued growth through 2010 look good. During 2008, just more than 9 million homes were added to the FTTH total (connected either in the home itself or in the basement of an apartment block), and in 2009 we expect that figure to increase by almost 9 million again, to reach 47 million homes at the end of the year.

However, progress is patchy. Some countries, notably China, are making a big leap forward, while others, such as France, have seen disappointing delays to ambitious rollout plans. This will only increase the variability in the world market on a wide range of factors, including penetration, technology, costs, regulation, major builders, and so on. These variations will also occur at the national level, creating some dilemmas for regulators and politicians. Already, a ten-year gap in fiber development has opened up between fiber-heavy countries such as Japan and European nations, including Germany and the U.K. – and this gap could widen.

For these and other reasons, the complexity of the FTTH market has increased in the 18 months since Heavy Readings last major report on this topic. Key reasons for this increasing complexity include:

			The imminent launch of next-generation PONs, creating more choices for both vendors and buyers. These new products include a 10GPON variant, created by the International Telecommunication Union; a 10GEPON variant, developed by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers; and various proprietary WDM PON schemes.
			The entry of another type of player – cable MSOs – into a market that already includes incumbent telcos, municipalities, utilities, real-estate developers, competitive telcos, and government-inspired "netcos" financed by direct grants or public-private partnerships.
			The lack of a clear regulatory model, with many important issues still to be settled in most markets, including the degree of construction subsidy permitted; the rules for access to (incumbent) fiber, ducts, etc.; and rules on access to apartment buildings.
			The potentially disruptive impact of next-generation mobile technologies, in particular the Long Term Evolution architecture, which may damage the case for fiber-based wired infrastructure in many areas – or actually stimulate it.